The Fraser of Allander Institute based at the University of Strathclyde published its latest Economic Commentary featuring a diverse range of expert views on the current economic outlook including the MacCaLM Executive Director, Robert Zymek.
The commentary, titled “The impact of the coronavirus on our economy and society – views from 17 experts” asks a diverse mix of experts on their opinion on the current economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic and how our economy and society may be impacted in the future.
Robert provided his expert insight into three key questions concerning Scotland’s economic future including the outlook for the economy over the next 12 months, what permanent changes to our economy will emerge from the crisis, and what the top priority areas for policymakers should be at this time.
Speaking of the outlook for the Scottish economy over the next 12 months, Robert explained we can expect a “Nike swoosh” recession, with a return to peak GDP in the middle of 2021 or later, highlighting “The most reasonable interpretation of the data is that the downturn is caused in part by the lockdown, but in part also by behavioural changes in response to the epidemic outbreak.”.
With regards to policy, Robert highlighted that the priority must be to “reverse the lockdown while containing the Covid-19 epidemic.”, which should involve “building up an infrastructure to detect new outbreaks of the disease and intervene in a targeted manner where necessary”. In addition to this, he suggested policy makers would do well to ensure the UK more clearly defines the nature of its trade relationship with the EU and other major economies from January 2021 to avoid UK trade-dependent jobs being cut off from the eventual global recovery.
Read the whole article here.
About the Fraser of Allander Institute
The Fraser of Allander Insitute (FAI) is an economics research institute based at the Strathclyde Business School. It is part of the Department of Economics. They aim to undertake high quality applied economic research that has real-world impact and to inform decision making within policy circles at both a national and local level.